Are skyline plot-based demographic estimates overly dependent on smoothing prior assumptions?

In Bayesian phylogenetics, the coalescent process provides an informative framework for inferring changes in the effective size of a population from a phylogeny (or tree) of sequences sampled from that population. Popular coalescent inference approaches such as the Bayesian Skyline Plot, Skyride and Skygrid all model these population size changes with a discontinuous, piecewise-constant function but then apply a smoothing prior to ensure that their posterior population size estimates transition gradually with time. These prior distributions implicitly encode extra population size information that is not available from the observed coalescent data i.e., the tree. Here we present a novel statistic, Ω, to quantify and disaggregate the relative contributions of the coalescent data and prior assumptions to the resulting posterior estimate precision. Our statistic also measures the additional mutual information introduced by such priors. Using Ω we show that, because it is surprisingly easy to over-parametrise piecewise-constant population models, common smoothing priors can lead to overconfident and potentially misleading inference, even under robust experimental designs. We propose Ω as a useful tool for detecting when effective population size estimates are overly reliant on prior assumptions and for improving quantification of the uncertainty in those estimates

AS AVENTURAS DE DOG MENDONÇA E PIZZA BOY: UMA LEITURA

Na trilogia As Aventuras de Dog Mendonça e Pizza Boy (2010; 2011; 2013) e sua prequela (2012), Filipe Melo e Juan Cavia povoam Portugal, e em particular Lisboa, com vários corpos fantásticos: gárgulas, vampiros, lobisomens, zombies, demónios e outros seres habitam o universo lusitano naquela que é uma obra com claras referências cinematográficas aos mestres do cinema de horror e outros. Ao mesmo tempo, esta homenagem apresenta também uma reflexão sobre o corpo fantástico, a monstruosidade e o Outro. Centrando-se essencialmente nas figuras sobrenaturais desta obra, este ensaio aborda os corpos fantásticos presentes nesta BD, em particular o caso de Dog Mendonça, o lobisomem, e de Pazuul, o demónio em corpo de criança. Desta forma, o presente estudo tem um duplo objetivo: por um lado, explorar as influências fantásticas de As Aventuras de Dog Mendonça e Pizza Boy e, por outro, estabelecer uma leitura do corpo fantástico a partir da análise de duas personagens que circulam entre dois mundos numa mesma cidade, o mundo sobrenatural e o mundo humano

A Possible Geographic Origin of Endemic Hepatitis C Virus 6a in Hong Kong: Evidences for the Association with Vietnamese Immigration

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) 6a accounts for 23.6% of all HCV infections of the general population and 58.5% of intravenous drug users in Hong Kong. However, the geographical origin of this highly predominant HCV subgenotype is largely unknown. This study explores a hypothesis for one possible transmission route of HCV 6a to Hong Kong. METHODS: NS5A sequences derived from 26 HCV 6a samples were chosen from a five year period (1999-2004) from epidemiologically unrelated patients from Hong Kong. Partial-NS5A sequences (513-bp from nt 6728 to 7240) were adopted for Bayesian coalescent analysis to reconstruct the evolutionary history of HCV infections in Hong Kong using the BEAST v1.3 program. A rooted phylogenetic tree was drawn for these sequences by alignment with reference Vietnamese sequences. Demographic data were accessed from "The Statistic Yearbooks of Hong Kong". RESULTS: Bayesian coalescent analysis showed that the rapid increase in 6a infections, which had increased more than 90-fold in Hong Kong from 1986 to 1994 correlated to two peaks of Vietnamese immigration to Hong Kong from 1978 to 1997. The second peak, which occurred from 1987 through 1997, overlapped with the rapid increase of HCV 6a occurrence in Hong Kong. Phylogenetic analyses have further revealed that HCV 6a strains from Vietnam may be ancestral to Hong Kong counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: The high predominance of HCV 6a infections in Hong Kong was possibly associated with Vietnamese immigration during 1987-1997

The mode and tempo of hepatitis C virus evolution within and among hosts

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a rapidly-evolving RNA virus that establishes chronic infections in humans. Despite the virus' public health importance and a wealth of sequence data, basic aspects of HCV molecular evolution remain poorly understood. Here we investigate three sets of whole HCV genomes in order to directly compare the evolution of whole HCV genomes at different biological levels: within- and among-hosts. We use a powerful Bayesian inference framework that incorporates both among-lineage rate heterogeneity and phylogenetic uncertainty into estimates of evolutionary parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most of the HCV genome evolves at ~0.001 substitutions/site/year, a rate typical of RNA viruses. The antigenically-important <it>E1/E2 </it>genome region evolves particularly quickly, with correspondingly high rates of positive selection, as inferred using two related measures. Crucially, in this region an exceptionally higher rate was observed for within-host evolution compared to among-host evolution. Conversely, higher rates of evolution were seen among-hosts for functionally relevant parts of the <it>NS5A </it>gene. There was also evidence for slightly higher evolutionary rate for HCV subtype 1a compared to subtype 1b.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using new statistical methods and comparable whole genome datasets we have quantified, for the first time, the variation in HCV evolutionary dynamics at different scales of organisation. This confirms that differences in molecular evolution between biological scales are not restricted to HIV and may represent a common feature of chronic RNA viral infection. We conclude that the elevated rate observed in the <it>E1/E2 </it>region during within-host evolution more likely results from the reversion of host-specific adaptations (resulting in slower long-term among-host evolution) than from the preferential transmission of slowly-evolving lineages.</p

稲垣足穂『少年愛の美学』の読書論的研究 --念者としての語り--

千葉大学大学院人文社会科学研究科研究プロジェクト報告書第144集 『パフォーマンスの民族誌的研究』橋本裕之

Oropouche virus cases identified in Ecuador using an optimised qRT-PCR informed by metagenomic sequencing

Oropouche virus (OROV) is responsible for outbreaks of Oropouche fever in parts of South America. We recently identified and isolated OROV from a febrile Ecuadorian patient, however, a previously published qRT-PCR assay did not detect OROV in the patient sample. A primer mismatch to the Ecuadorian OROV lineage was identified from metagenomic sequencing data. We report the optimisation of an qRT-PCR assay for the Ecuadorian OROV lineage, which subsequently identified a further five cases in a cohort of 196 febrile patients. We isolated OROV via cell culture and developed an algorithmically-designed primer set for whole-genome amplification of the virus. Metagenomic sequencing of the patient samples provided OROV genome coverage ranging from 68-99%. The additional cases formed a single phylogenetic cluster together with the initial case. OROV should be considered as a differential diagnosis for Ecuadorian patients with febrile illness to avoid mis-diagnosis with other circulating pathogens

Discovery of a polyomavirus in European badgers (Meles meles) and the evolution of host range in the family Polyomaviridae.

Polyomaviruses infect a diverse range of mammalian and avian hosts, and are associated with a variety of symptoms. However, it is unknown whether the viruses are found in all mammalian families and the evolutionary history of the polyomaviruses is still unclear. Here, we report the discovery of a novel polyomavirus in the European badger (Meles meles), which to our knowledge represents the first polyomavirus to be characterized in the family Mustelidae, and within a European carnivoran. Although the virus was discovered serendipitously in the supernatant of a cell culture inoculated with badger material, we subsequently confirmed its presence in wild badgers. The European badger polyomavirus was tentatively named Meles meles polyomavirus 1 (MmelPyV1). The genome is 5187 bp long and encodes proteins typical of polyomaviruses. Phylogenetic analyses including all known polyomavirus genomes consistently group MmelPyV1 with California sea lion polyomavirus 1 across all regions of the genome. Further evolutionary analyses revealed phylogenetic discordance amongst polyomavirus genome regions, possibly arising from evolutionary rate heterogeneity, and a complex association between polyomavirus phylogeny and host taxonomic groups

Translational web robots for pathogen genome analysis

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